November 2026 commodity brief: oil retreats, crops and metals reprice lower

In the 30 days to 11 November 2026, 11 of the 13 commodity futures we track closed lower. Brent fell 12.3% from its mid-October level, wheat 10.9% and silver 13.4%. Only US natural gas and cotton rose. Below is what moved, the news behind it, and what it means for companies buying or selling physical volumes.

The month in numbers

Front-month futures, delayed closes. Changes from 12 October and 13 August 2026. Source: exchange data via Yahoo Finance.

Energy: supply returns, risk stays

Crude came down hard from October's spike. Brent traded as high as $117.64 a barrel during the month and settled near $93.48 on 11 November; WTI moved from a $104.12 high to $87.48. The clearest supply signal: Saudi Arabia told OPEC it raised output to 10.563 million barrels per day in October, close to its pre-war level and slightly above its quota (Bloomberg via OilPrice.com; Financial Times).

The risk premium has not gone away. Brent rose almost 3% on 11 November alone after Iran denied holding talks with Washington (OilPrice.com). For buyers, a range of more than $20 inside one month argues against open fixed-price exposure: stagger purchases, or price part of the volume against a benchmark with an agreed differential.

Gas tells a regional story. US Henry Hub rose 4.0% to its highest level of the month. In Europe, Germany will create a 24 TWh state gas reserve after missing its winter storage targets (gCaptain), and Poland's Orlen terminated a long-term LNG contract with QatarEnergy, citing the supplier's inability to deliver during the conflict (gCaptain).

Shipping: Panama eases, the Gulf tightens

The Panama Canal is raising daily capacity to 34 transits and restoring the 50-foot maximum draft at its Neopanamax locks (gCaptain), good news for grain and energy cargoes moving from the US Gulf to Asia. In the Gulf, the IMO's Secretary-General called on governments to enforce safety rules in the Strait of Hormuz (gCaptain), and Canada reinstated sanctions on the National Iranian Tanker Company (Splash247). Screening vessels, owners and counterparties against sanctions lists remains a basic step, not a formality.

Metals: precious metals give back gains

Gold fell 4.4% over the month to about $4,008 an ounce, and silver 13.4%. Gold steadied after the latest sell-off as central-bank buying offset expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase (Investing.com). Copper lost 6.0% to $6.30 a pound. On the supply side, Lithium Americas raised the budget for its Thacker Pass project in Nevada by 31% to $3.83 billion (MINING.COM): new mine supply keeps getting more expensive.

Agriculture: broad declines, cotton the exception

Grains and softs fell across the board: wheat −10.9%, corn −7.5%, soybeans −4.2%, sugar −11.5%, cocoa −11.3% and arabica coffee −8.9%, which closed on 11 November at its lowest level of the month. Cotton gained 2.2%.

For importers, lower futures are a chance to cover part of next year's needs. For exporters in Latin America, they are a reason to watch basis and premiums closely: physical prices depend on origin, quality and freight, and they do not always follow the screen.

What we are watching in December

• Whether other Gulf producers follow Saudi Arabia back toward pre-war output.
• Security and insurance conditions for tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Panama Canal capacity as the US export season builds.
• European gas storage through the first cold weeks of winter.
• The Federal Reserve's December decision and its effect on the dollar and metals.

This brief is for information only and is not investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. Prices are delayed front-month futures as of 11 November 2026; headlines are summarized from the linked publications.